CL Qualification Would Unlock Villa's Osimhen Bid and Forest's Defensive Overhaul

The two remaining Champions League places could be filled this weekend, and the outcome will shape summer transfer windows across the Premier League, with Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest among the clubs whose recruitment plans hinge on whether they finish in the top five.

The Premier League confirmed on Thursday that Manchester United’s victory over Liverpool last weekend secured a third Champions League spot for 2025/26, joining Arsenal and Manchester City. Two places remain, with Liverpool, Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, and Bournemouth all in contention heading into Matchweek 36.^{T1, Premier League}

A draw is enough for Liverpool this weekend if Bournemouth lose. Villa and Forest would each qualify with a draw if other results align, though the permutations for Forest are narrower, requiring Arsenal to beat West Ham.^{T1, Premier League}

For Aston Villa, Champions League qualification would unlock a summer window centred on a marquee centre-forward. Fabrizio Romano reported in April that Villa have been in preliminary contact over Napoli striker Victor Osimhen, with the 26-year-old’s camp assessing Premier League interest as a priority.^{T1, Romano} The financial package required, understood to be in excess of £85m, is only feasible with Champions League revenue factored into the club’s financial model. Romano noted on his YouTube channel on 28 April that Villa had not yet made a formal bid but that the Osimhen file remained “active” and linked directly to the club’s European status.

David Ornstein of The Athletic reported separately that Villa’s hierarchy view a left-sided centre-back and a No. 8 as secondary priorities, with or without Champions League football, though the calibre of targets shifts significantly if Unai Emery’s side are playing on Tuesday and Wednesday nights next season.^{T1, Ornstein}

Nottingham Forest’s summer is shaped more by retention than recruitment, but a Champions League place would accelerate a defensive reinforcement push. Florian Plettenberg of Sky Germany reported this week that Forest have identified Bayer Leverkusen centre-back Jonathan Tah as a target, though the 28-year-old’s preference is understood to remain a move to a club already established in Europe’s elite competition.^{T2, Plettenberg} A top-five finish would change the pitch Forest can make.

The Guardian’s John Percy reported that Forest’s recruitment team, led by sporting director Ross Wilson, has drawn up a shortlist of four defensive targets regardless of European status, but the club’s internal projections for transfer spend rise by a reported £30m if Champions League group-stage revenue is secured.^{T1, Percy}

Bournemouth, meanwhile, remain the outsider in the race. Their recruitment model under owner Bill Foley and technical director Simon Francis has been built around sell-to-buy principles, and The Athletic reported that a Champions League place would not fundamentally alter their summer approach, though it would raise the ceiling on individual deal valuations they are prepared to sanction.^{T2, The Athletic}

The picture could clear by Sunday evening. If Villa beat Bournemouth and Forest take a point from their fixture, both clubs would be within touching distance of confirmation, with the final matchweek of the season still to play. Everything after that belongs to the transfer market.