The lad behind the counter at the bookies on Deansgate on Friday morning had the Premier League weekend coupon spread across the counter like a map of somewhere he did not want to visit. Manchester United away, Arsenal at home, Liverpool the early kick-off. He said he had already taken four bets on Bruno Fernandes to have an assist and not one of them was from a United fan. The season is at the stage where the fixture list is a machine that does not stop and the weekend is another turn of the handle.
Saturday
Liverpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers, 12:30
Liverpool have won eleven of their last twelve at Anfield in the league and Wolves have conceded in each of their last nine away from Molineux. Sky Sports’ Jones Knows, the tipping column, has this down as a home win with Mohamed Salah to score and has pointed out that Liverpool’s expected goals at home this season, per 90 minutes, sits at 2.6, which is the second highest in the division behind Manchester City. The angle the column offers is over 3.5 goals, priced at a shade under evens, on the basis that Wolves’ away xGA is the third worst in the league. I would not argue with that. Salah has scored in four of his last five starts against Wolves and has a record, in the league, of one hundred and seventy-one goals in two hundred and eighty-four appearances, a figure that should not need embellishment. Prediction: Liverpool 3 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1. Standout pick: Mohamed Salah to score first. Best value: Over 3.5 goals.
Burnley v Bournemouth, 15:00
Burnley have taken four points from their last six at Turf Moor and Bournemouth have not lost away since the end of January. The Sky Sports tipping piece makes Bournemouth the selection here, citing a price of 6/4 that it considers generous given Burnley’s home record. The Cherries’ away xG, since the turn of the year, is the fifth-best in the division. Dominic Solanke has scored eleven in his last fifteen league starts, a run that has taken his season tally to seventeen, and the column suggests he is overpriced in the anytime scorer market. The football will not be pretty but the numbers suggest Bournemouth have the better of it. Prediction: Burnley 1 Bournemouth 2. Standout pick: Dominic Solanke to score anytime. Best value: Bournemouth to win at 6/4.
Fulham v Luton Town, 15:00
Fulham have lost once at Craven Cottage since the start of December. Luton have won one of their last eleven away and have the worst defensive record on the road in the league. The tipping column notes that Fulham to win and both teams to score is priced around 2/1 and argues that is fair because Luton, for all their difficulties, have scored in eight of their last nine away. I spoke to a Luton supporter at Kenilworth Road last month who told me, with some feeling, that the club’s away record is better than people think and the home record is what is killing them. He was not wrong. The column’s pick is Fulham to win with both teams to score. Prediction: Fulham 2 Luton Town 1. Standout pick: Rodrigo Muniz to score anytime. Best value: Fulham to win and BTTS at 2/1.
Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur, 17:30
This is the fixture the column flags as its best bet of the day. Tottenham have won one of their last five on the road and Newcastle, at St James’ Park, have scored two or more in nine of their last twelve. The Sky Sports piece backs Alexander Isak to score, pointing out that his goals-per-90 rate, at 0.78, is the third best in the division behind Erling Haaland and Salah. The price on Newcastle to win is around evens, and the column says that is the play. Tottenham have been entertaining this season and their away xG is middling, but the defensive record, away, is the ninth-worst in the league. Prediction: Newcastle United 3 Tottenham Hotspur 1. Standout pick: Alexander Isak to score anytime. Best value: Newcastle to win at evens.
Sunday
Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, 14:00
Manchester City have won eight of their last nine in the league and their away xG, at 2.3 per ninety, is the best in the division. Nottingham Forest have taken seven points from their last six at the City Ground and have beaten City once in the league since 1997, which was the reverse fixture at the Etihad in September. The tipping column, in the Sky Sports piece, backs City to win and Erling Haaland to score, noting that Haaland has twenty-one league goals this season and has scored in his last three appearances. The price on City to win and over 2.5 goals is around 11/10 and the column says that is value. I would take it. Forest will make it awkward for twenty minutes and then the quality gap will do the rest. Prediction: Nottingham Forest 0 Manchester City 3. Standout pick: Erling Haaland to score two or more. Best value: City to win and over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Chelsea v Manchester United, 16:30
This is the one the Friday morning punter on Deansgate was building his coupon around. Manchester United have lost four of their last six away in the league and Chelsea, at Stamford Bridge, have won six of their last eight. The Sky Sports column’s headline selection, as the headline says, is Bruno Fernandes to register an assist. The reasoning is straightforward: Fernandes has twelve assists in the league this season, the second most in the division behind Salah, and the column notes that his chances-created rate, at 3.1 per ninety, is the highest of any midfielder in the league. The price on Fernandes to assist is around 2/1 and the piece calls it value. United’s away record is poor, and Chelsea’s home form has been the better of their two faces this season, but the column points out that United have scored in all but one of their last nine away, and that the match has produced over 2.5 goals in five of the last six meetings. The punter on Deansgate, if he is reading, should know that I would not bet against Fernandes finding a teammate on Sunday afternoon. Prediction: Chelsea 2 Manchester United 2. Standout pick: Bruno Fernandes to assist. Best value: Bruno Fernandes to assist at 2/1, and over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
The weekend is another turn of the handle. The bookies on Deansgate will be open at half past eleven on Saturday and closed by the time the Chelsea fans file out of Stamford Bridge on Sunday evening. The football is the football. The coupon is the coupon. Somewhere between the two, if you are lucky, you find the angle that was there all along.
