AT&T Stadium, in Arlington, Texas, seats roughly 80,000 people under a retractable roof that closes against the summer heat. On 17 June, England and Croatia will play there, and the temperature inside will be controlled in ways the temperature of the occasion will not be.

England and Croatia have met at major tournaments with a regularity that has made the fixture familiar to the point of ritual: the 2018 World Cup semi-final, which Croatia won; the Euro 2020 group meeting at Wembley, which England took 1-0 through Raheem Sterling. Now they meet in the group stage, England ranked fourth in the world, Croatia ranked 11th with a squad that has replaced its 2018 generation imperfectly but not negligibly. The fixture carries weight the group-stage context does not fully contain.

England (FIFA rank: 4)

Harry Kane leads England’s attack; Jordan Pickford is the goalkeeper; Declan Rice anchors the midfield. The squad depth allows rotation without obvious quality drop-off. Ivan Toney and Ollie Watkins offer alternative forward profiles. Marc Guéhi and John Stones form a central defensive partnership with significant international experience. Schedule: Croatia at AT&T Stadium on 17 June, Ghana at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on 23 June, Panama at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on 27 June.

Croatia (FIFA rank: 11)

Luka Modrić continues to set Croatia’s midfield tempo at an age when most midfielders have withdrawn from international football. Mateo Kovacic provides a different quality beside him. Josko Gvardiol, at 22, is the defensive talent around whom Croatia’s post-2018 generation has been built. Andrej Kramaric leads the forward line. Croatia do not need to dominate England in Arlington; they need to be organised enough to create one or two moments and convert one. Against Ghana and Panama, they should win. The arithmetic almost certainly runs through a point against England. Schedule: England at AT&T Stadium on 17 June, Panama at BMO Field in Toronto on 23 June, Ghana at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on 27 June.

Ghana (FIFA rank: 74)

Iñaki Williams, the Athletic Club forward who chose Ghana over Spain, is the most technically complete attacker in the squad. Jordan Ayew provides leadership and experience. Thomas Partey, when fit, is one of the more complete midfielders to come out of West Africa in the past decade. Ghana’s ranking of 74th reflects a recent run below the programme’s historical ceiling. Their competition in Group L is with Panama for the third-place slot. Fixtures: Panama at BMO Field in Toronto on 17 June, England at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on 23 June, Croatia at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on 27 June. The Panama match is the pivotal one.

Panama (FIFA rank: 33)

Panama’s ranking of 33rd reflects a Concacaf programme that has punched consistently above its geography. They were at the 2018 World Cup. The squad is built around Aníbal Godoy’s midfield experience and a defensive organisation that is Central American football’s primary competitive tool against stronger opponents. Schedule: Ghana at BMO Field in Toronto on 17 June, Croatia at BMO Field in Toronto on 23 June, England at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on 27 June. The Ghana match will likely determine whether Panama finish third or fourth.

Who advances on paper

England and Croatia should qualify. Croatia’s path to second runs through maximum points against Panama and Ghana, and a point against England. England, ranked fourth, should win the group. The actual competition in Group L is between Ghana and Panama for third, and with the best-8-of-12-third-place format, four points can carry through to the knockout stage.

The closer

The England and Croatia fixture in Arlington will attract attention that neither Ghana nor Panama will fully share in the opening round of Group L. That is the correct proportion, given the rankings. What the proportion does not capture is that the four-team format requires all four to play all three matches regardless of the two-team narrative that forms around England and Croatia. Ghana and Panama, in Toronto on 17 June, are playing for six points of group-stage relevance. Jordan Ayew will be somewhere inside BMO Field when that match begins, and for him, and for the squad around him, England’s fixture eight time zones away will be, in that moment, someone else’s business.