The rain has not stopped in Liverpool for three days. It will not matter much by Saturday afternoon, when the table reads what the table reads, and the permutations begin to resolve themselves.
There are three matchweeks left in this Premier League season, and two Champions League places still unclaimed. Manchester United’s win at Anfield last weekend did what it did; it closed one door and opened a conversation about exactly what everybody else needs. The Premier League itself has published the permutations. They are worth spelling out, because the margins are narrower than the table suggests.
Liverpool need a point against West Ham to guarantee a top-four finish. That is all. A draw at the London Stadium and the arithmetic is done, regardless of what happens elsewhere. A defeat, and things get uncomfortable quickly. If Bournemouth lose at home to Fulham, Liverpool would still be safe even with a draw, but that is asking for help, which is not a position Arne Slot’s side have often been in this season. They have been chasing Manchester City for most of the campaign. Now they are chasing certainty, which is a different kind of race.
Aston Villa are in an identical position: one point against Everton at Villa Park and they are in the Champions League. Unai Emery’s side have not lost at home since November. Everton have not won away since October. The numbers suggest this is a formality, but formality is a word that belongs to mathematics, not to football, and Emery knows better than most that the Premier League does not hand out anything for free. Villa also have the Europa League final to consider. If they finish fifth and win that final, they qualify for the Champions League anyway, which is a safety net few expected them to need at the start of the season.
Nottingham Forest are the complication. Nuno Espírito Santo’s side need to beat Brentford at the City Ground, and they need Arsenal to beat West Ham. That is the simplest version of their equation. A draw is enough for Forest only if Arsenal beat the Hammers; then the goal difference conversation begins, and Forest are currently behind on that count. It is not impossible. It is not straightforward either. The City Ground on a Saturday afternoon, with everything riding on it, will not be a place for the faint-hearted.
The wider picture: three rounds of fixtures remain. The title, the European places, the relegation places, all of them still breathe. But Saturday could narrow the conversation significantly. Liverpool, Villa, and Forest are the three clubs whose Champions League fates could be confirmed by teatime, and the results that get them there are specific enough to hold in your head without writing them down.
A point each for Liverpool and Villa. A win for Forest and Arsenal. That is the checklist. The rain will still be falling in Liverpool by the time the final whistles blow, but the table will look different, and the last two weeks of the season will begin to feel like something approaching a conclusion rather than a continuation.
