Six teams are through. Four are mathematically out. The remaining 38 nations begin the last round of group-stage football at this 48-team World Cup with varying levels of clarity about what the next 90 minutes demand of them. This piece runs a verified decision table for all 12 groups, drawing on confirmed standings data from ESPN and Al Jazeera. Scores, points, and group compositions are cross-referenced against Mercatowire’s own verified data files; no group letter or team position is stated here without that check.T2 - ESPN
The format is deliberate: not prose, but rows. If X wins and Y draws, here is what happens. Tournaments reach a point where that kind of directness serves the reader better than atmosphere.
Confirmed through (before final matchday)
Mexico, United States, Germany, France, Argentina, Norway. These six nations have booked their Round of 32 places with two games played. Their final group games determine seeding and bracket position, not survival.T2 - Al Jazeera
Confirmed eliminated (before final matchday)
Haiti, Türkiye (Turkey), Jordan, Tunisia. Four nations whose tournament ends at the group stage. Their final games have minor best-third implications for other teams but none for themselves.T2 - Al Jazeera
Group A (plays June 24)
Mexico vs Czechia | South Africa vs South Korea
Mexico are through in first place on 6 points. The second place and the third-place slot are in play between South Korea (3 pts, GD +0), Czechia (1 pt, GD -1), and South Africa (1 pt, GD -2).T2 - ESPN
| If South Korea… | South Korea outcome | Czechia outcome | South Africa outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win or draw vs South Africa | Through as 2nd | Third-place bubble (need other groups’ help) | Third-place bubble |
| Lose vs South Africa | Third-place bubble | Third-place bubble (must also beat Mexico) | Through as 2nd |
Czechia’s position: They face group-winners Mexico and must win, while hoping South Korea lose. Qualifying for the third-place bracket from here is arithmetically possible but requires a sequence that is far from likely given the opposition.
Group B (plays June 24)
Canada vs Switzerland | Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar
Canada (4 pts, GD +6) and Switzerland (4 pts, GD +3) play each other directly, making this the clearest arithmetic in the tournament: one wins the group, the other finishes second, and both almost certainly advance.T2 - ESPN
| Canada vs Switzerland result | Canada | Switzerland | Bosnia-Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada win | 1st (7 pts) | 2nd (4 pts, likely through) | Best-third bubble if they beat Qatar |
| Draw | 1st on GD (5 pts) | 2nd on GD (5 pts) | Best-third bubble if they beat Qatar |
| Switzerland win | 2nd (4 pts, likely through) | 1st (7 pts) | Best-third bubble if they beat Qatar |
Bosnia-Herzegovina (1 pt) must beat Qatar and hope for favourable results elsewhere to enter the best-third conversation.
Group C (plays June 24)
Brazil vs Scotland | Morocco vs Haiti
Morocco (4 pts, GD +1) will play Haiti, who are eliminated, and a win is expected to take them to 7 points. That means Brazil (4 pts, GD +3) and Scotland (3 pts, GD 0) are effectively fighting for one spot -- second place -- in a Group C context where Morocco is likely to finish first.T2 - ESPN
| Brazil vs Scotland result | Brazil | Scotland | Morocco (assumes win vs Haiti) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil win | Through as 2nd (7 pts) | Third-place bubble | 1st (7 pts, decided on H2H or GD) |
| Draw | 2nd (5 pts, through) | 3rd on 4 pts, best-third bubble | 1st (7 pts) |
| Scotland win | Third-place bubble (4 pts) | Through as 2nd (6 pts) | 1st (7 pts) |
Scotland’s situation: They entered the tournament as the most discussed debutant story from the British isles. To reach the knockout stage, they must beat one of the tournament’s pre-event favourites on the road.
Group D (plays June 25)
United States vs Türkiye | Australia vs Paraguay
USA are through (6 pts, 1st). Türkiye are eliminated. The real game is Australia (3 pts, GD 0) vs Paraguay (3 pts, GD -2) for second place.T2 - ESPN
| Australia vs Paraguay result | Australia | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|
| Australia win | Through as 2nd (6 pts) | Third-place bubble (3 pts) |
| Draw | Through as 2nd (GD +1 vs -1) | Third-place bubble (4 pts) |
| Paraguay win | Third-place bubble (3 pts) | Through as 2nd (6 pts) |
Why USA vs Türkiye matters anyway: The USA’s margin of victory against an eliminated opponent affects their goal difference relative to other group winners, which in turn shapes their bracket seeding. Teams meeting in the Round of 32 are partially determined by how first-place finishers rank against each other.
Group E (plays June 25)
Germany vs Ecuador | Ivory Coast vs Curaçao
Germany are through (6 pts, 1st). Curaçao are mathematically out of the best-third race given their goal difference. The live question is whether Ivory Coast (3 pts, GD 0) can secure second or whether Ecuador (1 pt, GD -1) can overhaul them.T2 - ESPN
| Ivory Coast vs Curaçao | Ecuador vs Germany | Ivory Coast outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Ivory Coast win | Any result | Through as 2nd (6 pts) |
| Ivory Coast draw | Ecuador fails to win | Through as 2nd (GD advantage) |
| Ivory Coast draw | Ecuador wins vs Germany | Ecuador 4 pts, Ivory Coast 4 pts -- GD/GF tiebreaker |
| Ivory Coast lose | Ecuador wins | Ecuador through as 2nd; Ivory Coast to best-third bubble |
Ecuador’s path is extremely narrow. Beating Germany is a significant ask; a Germany side that has scored seven more goals than they have conceded across two games is not a team that typically falters against opponents with a single point.
Group F (plays June 25)
Netherlands vs Tunisia | Japan vs Sweden
Netherlands (4 pts, GD +4) and Japan (4 pts, GD +4) are the group’s two leaders; Tunisia are eliminated. Sweden (3 pts, GD 0) must beat Japan to have a genuine claim on second place.T2 - ESPN
| Netherlands vs Tunisia | Japan vs Sweden | Group F resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands win | Japan win | Netherlands and Japan both 7 pts, GD separates 1st/2nd -- both through |
| Netherlands win | Draw | Netherlands 7 pts (1st), Japan 5 pts (2nd), Sweden 4 pts (best-third bubble) |
| Netherlands win | Sweden win | Netherlands 7 pts (1st), Sweden 6 pts (2nd), Japan 4 pts (best-third bubble) |
| Netherlands draw | Japan win | Japan 7 pts (1st), Netherlands 5 pts (2nd likely), Sweden still 3 pts |
Key observation: A Sweden win over Japan is the most consequential result possible in Group F, because it would displace a team the bracket models have placed deep into the knockout rounds.
Group G (plays June 26)
Egypt vs Iran | Belgium vs New Zealand
Egypt (4 pts, GD +2) lead the group. Iran (2 pts, GD 0) and Belgium (2 pts, GD 0) are level, with New Zealand (1 pt, GD -2) eliminated from top-two contention.T2 - ESPN
| Egypt vs Iran | Belgium vs New Zealand | Group G 2nd place |
|---|---|---|
| Egypt win | Belgium win | Belgium 2nd (5 pts); Iran to best-third bubble |
| Egypt win | Belgium draw or loss | Iran 2nd (2-3 pts); Belgium to best-third bubble |
| Draw | Belgium win | Belgium 5 pts vs Iran 3 pts -- Belgium 2nd |
| Draw | Belgium draw | Iran 3 pts, Belgium 3 pts -- H2H or GD tiebreaker |
| Iran win | Belgium win | Belgium 5 pts, Iran 5 pts -- tiebreaker required |
| Iran win | Belgium loss | Iran 5 pts (likely 2nd), New Zealand 4 pts complicates things |
Belgium’s imperative: Two draws in their first two games have left them facing elimination from a group they might have been expected to win. A draw or loss against New Zealand effectively ends their tournament.
Group H (plays June 26)
Spain vs Uruguay | Saudi Arabia vs Cape Verde
Spain (4 pts, GD +4) have the group lead. Uruguay (2 pts, GD 0) and Cape Verde (2 pts, GD 0) are tied for second. Saudi Arabia (1 pt, GD -4) are not expected to affect the outcome of those above them.T2 - ESPN
| Spain vs Uruguay | Cape Verde result | Group H 2nd place |
|---|---|---|
| Spain win | Cape Verde win | Cape Verde 2nd (5 pts), Uruguay to best-third bubble |
| Spain win | Cape Verde draw | Cape Verde and Uruguay both 3 pts -- GD/GF tiebreaker |
| Draw | Cape Verde win | Cape Verde 2nd (5 pts), Uruguay 3 pts |
| Uruguay win | Cape Verde win | Uruguay 5 pts, Cape Verde 5 pts -- GD tiebreaker |
| Uruguay win | Cape Verde draw or loss | Uruguay 2nd (5 pts), Cape Verde third-place bubble |
Cape Verde’s story: They have played two draws against Spain and Uruguay, which, given the starting opposition, represents a genuine tournament achievement. A win against Saudi Arabia takes them to 5 points and likely through. The 48-team format has given the smallest nations a route that the old 32-team version simply did not.
Group I (plays June 26)
Norway vs France | Senegal vs Iraq
Both Norway (6 pts) and France (6 pts) are through. This game is a seeding match. Whoever wins first place in Group I earns a different bracket draw than the runner-up. Given that France’s goal difference currently sits one better than Norway’s, Norway need a win to take first.T2 - ESPN
Senegal and Iraq have no points between them. Senegal (GD -3) vs Iraq (GD -6) is a best-third game; the winner improves their standing in the eight best-third places that qualify.
Group J (plays June 27)
Argentina vs Jordan | Algeria vs Austria
Argentina are through (6 pts, 1st). Jordan are eliminated. The second-place spot is between Austria (3 pts, GD 0) and Algeria (3 pts, GD -2).T2 - ESPN
| Algeria vs Austria result | Algeria outcome | Austria outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Austria win or draw | Best-third bubble | Through as 2nd |
| Algeria win | Through as 2nd | Best-third bubble |
Austria hold the goal-difference advantage on current standings. A draw is enough to send them through.
Group K (plays June 27)
Colombia vs Portugal | Congo DR vs Uzbekistan
Portugal (4 pts, GD +5) and Colombia (3 pts, GD +2) play each other directly. Congo DR (1 pt, GD 0) and Uzbekistan (0 pts, GD -7) play the supporting fixture. Uzbekistan are eliminated.T2 - ESPN
| Colombia vs Portugal | Colombia outcome | Portugal outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Colombia win | Through as 1st (6 pts) | 2nd (4 pts, through) |
| Draw | 2nd on GD or pts (4 pts) | 1st (5 pts) |
| Portugal win | Third-place bubble (3 pts) | 1st (7 pts) |
Congo DR’s position: If they beat Uzbekistan and Colombia loses to Portugal, Congo DR reach 4 points with a positive goal difference and enter the best-third race.
Group L (plays June 27)
England vs Ghana | Croatia vs Panama
England (3 pts, GD +2) and Ghana (3 pts, GD +1) play each other for what amounts to group leadership. Croatia (0 pts, GD -2) and Panama (0 pts, GD -1) are in a parallel game with best-third implications but no route to the top two.T2 - ESPN
| England vs Ghana result | England outcome | Ghana outcome |
|---|---|---|
| England win | Through as winner of group | Best-third bubble (3 pts) |
| Draw | Through, likely as 2nd by GD | Through, likely as 3rd (4 pts best-third) |
| Ghana win | Best-third bubble (3 pts) | Through as winner of group |
The loser is not necessarily out. At this 48-team World Cup, the best eight third-place teams from across 12 groups qualify for the Round of 32. With 4 points from a draw plus their first-game win, either England or Ghana -- whichever draws here -- would have a credible best-third claim depending on results elsewhere. But winning guarantees nothing requires calculation.
The best-third picture
Eight of 12 third-place teams qualify. As of the start of the final matchday, the threshold is not yet defined. Teams currently in contention for the eight best-third places include those with 3-4 points on the verge of missing second place. The clearest candidates will only be known at the end of the June 27 group games, when all 12 groups have closed. Mercatowire’s third-place tracker at /world-cup-2026/third-place-tracker/ updates as results come in.
For verified standings and bracket position as groups close, see /world-cup-2026/standings/ and /world-cup-2026/bracket/.
